03/24/2025

With Tariff Worries in Focus, First-quarter U.S. Earnings Outlook Looks Less Rosy

Earnings growth in Q1 now seen at half Q4 2024's pace

Analysts are turning more cautious on U.S. corporate earnings for the first quarter of this year, with the Trump administration's policies threatening to trigger a global trade war that could undermine economic growth.

Apple, Tesla and Ford Motor are among companies contributing the most to recently lowered estimates for the quarter, along with some insurers, whose projections have been hurt by fires in California early this year, according to Tajinder Dhillon, senior research analyst at LSEG.

S&P 500 forecasts for the first quarter of 2025 have fallen by 4.5 percentage points since January 1, the largest downward revision since the fourth quarter of 2023, he said.

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